Each summer the BRD hosts an annual mid-year Business Economic Outlook (BEO) forecast update meeting to review its annual employment projections for the year. Members of the steering committees for the 2009 BEO convened in late June to share their thoughts about what they saw happening in their sectors of the economy and the factors that were driving industry changes.
The bottom line is that overall job losses for 2009 will be in the 3% range, or 60,000 jobs. This is update is substantially lower than the original forecast, presented in December 2008, that projected a decline of 4,300 employees. By year-end, job losses are projected for all sectors, except for Government, and Education and Health Care Services. Gains in both sectors will be driven by increased population.
It is anticipated that total employment for the summer months will average about 100,000 fewer jobs than 2008. Despite these steep declines, the rate of job loss is expected to slow during the third quarter and approach zero or turn slightly positive in the final quarter.
At the mid-year point, the greatest improvement has occurred in the housing market, which appears to have bottomed out in many parts of the country. On average, Colorado's home prices are slightly lower than a year ago, compared to an average decrease of 4% for the nation. At the same time, it looks as if the financial markets have stabilized, although credit markets remain tight and growth is unlikely to occur until credit becomes more readily available. On a positive note, consumer confidence most likely bottomed out in the first quarter; however, consumers remain overleveraged and are not in a position to lead an economic recovery in the short term.
A complete overview, including analyses for each of the sectors, is available in the most current issue of the Colorado Business Review. To stay on top of what is happening in the Colorado economy, business leaders are encouraged to become a panelist and participate in the quarterly Leeds Business Confidence Index. Finally, make plans now to participate in the 2010 Colorado Business Economic Outlook Forecast, to be held on December 7 at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Denver.
