In the video, I discuss the three, promising to be dynamic, breakout sessions:
The BRD staff research team is busy compiling and editing data and reports from the members of the Steering Committee for the 2010 Colorado Business Economic Outlook Forecast (BEOF). Unlike many forecasts, which are developed from econometric models, the BEOF is derived from the expert opinions of public and private leaders across the state. In addition, the BEOF is unique because it details the factors that that will drive each of the sectors in the state economy.
The Steering Committee and BRD research team have a series of challenges when forecasting the outlook for 2010. First, they must evaluate the monthly employment pattern for 2009 to determine if there are signs that the downward trend has reversed. In addition, they must take into consideration the magnitude of future revisions to the data series (the 2009 monthly data will be revised in March of 2010 and 2011). The 2009 forecast will be prepared based on the analysis of trends, expert opinion, and possible revision. It will serve as the foundation for the 2010 forecast. The trick will be to determine the turning point in the loss of jobs and when employment patterns will return to normal.
On a positive note, the feedback from the committee suggests that the economy is improving. Preliminary data suggests that the largest employment declines and the extreme volatility of the past 12 months appear to be behind us. At the moment, it remains to be seen whether this will produce annual job gains or job losses in 2010.
Stay tuned! Check out the 2010 BEOF on December 7 at the Grand Hyatt for further details.
