As an editor/project coordinator with the BRD for 20-some years, the 2010 Colorado Business Economic forecast was my 20th. Granted I'm not a research analyst or economist, but as a person who's read my fair share of forecasts over the years, here are some things that stuck in my mind as I worked on this year's (in no particular order):
Construction--Don't look for the Construction Sector to lead us out of this recession. Colorado will record only 7,000 single-family permits in 2009--a 37% decline from 2008 and an 83% drop from the peak in 2004.
Energy--Colorado is home to eight of the largest natural gas fields in the nation and three of the largest oil fields. The Henderson Mine is North America's largest primary producer of molybdenum (used in the production of steel).
Retail--Colorado retail sales for 2009 are forecast to decline (decrease, fall, drop, slide--how many ways can you say that? We had to use those words too many times this year.). This significantly affects the coffers of state and local governments.
Healthcare--Sixty-two percent of all U.S. bankruptcies are caused by medical problems. Of the $500 billion spent annually in the U.S. to treat the top 10 most expensive diseases, $93 billion are attributed to obesity-related factors.
High Tech--Colorado ranked third nationally in per capita high-tech employment for the third consecutive year, according to Cyberstates 2009.
Total employment--The current decade shows the weakest job growth of the past four decades, with the addition of approximately 117,900 jobs. Compare that to the 650,000 jobs that were added during the "go-go" 90s.
What did forum attendees think? Check out their comments, along with the complete 2010 forecast, on the BRD website.
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